Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, is facing one of the most uncertain periods of his political life as his recent defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has failed to gain momentum, especially across the North-West, a region once considered his political stronghold.
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On March 10, 2025, El-Rufai formally announced his resignation from the All Progressives Congress (APC), a party he helped nurture from inception. In his resignation, El-Rufai cited a growing misalignment between his personal values and the current direction of the APC.
He declared his commitment to building a viable opposition front that would challenge the APC's dominance ahead of the 2027 general elections. As a new SDP member, El-Rufai pledged to unite opposition forces under one democratic platform, promising to lead strategic efforts aimed at dislodging the ruling party through upcoming elections and by-elections.
However, just two months after that bold political move, the reality on ground tells a different story. Despite several closed-door meetings, high-level consultations, and tireless lobbying, El-Rufai has not succeeded in attracting any significant political heavyweight to join his SDP movement.
Key political players in the North-West have declined his invitations, and as of now, the SDP lacks any tangible political structure in Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, or Zamfara states.
Sources close to the situation confirmed that El-Rufai made desperate attempts to secure the support of influential political figures, particularly governors, senators, and House of Representatives members in Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, and Kebbi. But none of these efforts yielded results.
According to one insider, he reached out to Senators Adamu Aliero, Yahaya Abdullahi, and Garba Maidoki in Kebbi State, all of whom rejected his offer. Instead, they moved deeper into the APC fold, signaling a lack of faith in El-Rufai’s political mission.
The former governor also reportedly tried to convince the Governor of Nasarawa State to align with his movement, but that initiative also failed. Political analysts suggest that the SDP under El-Rufai is not viewed as a serious alternative.
Many still associate the SDP with President Bola Tinubu’s early political days, particularly his 1992 Lagos West senatorial victory under the party’s banner.
This historical baggage, combined with suspicions about El-Rufai’s real motives, has made many opposition figures wary.
There’s a prevailing belief in some quarters that El-Rufai’s defection may be a tactical move to fracture the opposition or that he still maintains covert loyalty to President Tinubu.
As it stands, the SDP has only two elected representatives in the National Assembly — Senator Godiya Akwashiki from Nasarawa North and Hon. Abubakar Sarki Dahiru representing Lafia/Obi Federal Constituency.
El-Rufai had hoped to use these limited gains as a foundation to rebuild the party’s national relevance, but the odds appear stacked against him.
Amid this political freeze-out, El-Rufai is said to be growing increasingly frustrated. His recent meeting with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar reportedly ended without agreement. Atiku allegedly urged him to return to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), reminding him of the party’s role in his early political rise.
But El-Rufai countered by inviting Atiku to join the SDP instead, arguing that the PDP was deeply divided, particularly due to internal wranglings fueled by the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike.
The conversation concluded without resolution, leaving El-Rufai stuck between two unappealing choices — forging ahead alone with an unresponsive SDP or returning to a PDP mired in internal conflict.
So far, the only prominent individual El-Rufai has been able to attract to the SDP is comedian Obinna Simon, popularly known as MC Tagwaye, famed for mimicking former President Muhammadu Buhari. While Tagwaye has built a national reputation through comedy, his political influence is negligible. One political observer noted that attracting a comedian instead of political figures only highlights the depth of El-Rufai’s current predicament.
Observers trace the root of El-Rufai’s isolation to the period following the 2023 elections. Though he backed Tinubu’s presidential bid and worked to consolidate northern support, the relationship soured after El-Rufai was listed as a potential minister but was later dropped due to a reported adverse security report from the Department of State Services (DSS).
While the exact reasons for the DSS report were never officially disclosed, rumors suggest it stemmed from controversial remarks and perceived affiliations in El-Rufai’s past. He reportedly viewed the incident as a betrayal, believing Tinubu did little to protect him when it mattered most.
In southern Nigeria, El-Rufai remains a deeply polarizing figure. His unapologetic advocacy for the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket in 2023 alienated many Christian communities and left a lingering sense of distrust.
Political figures in the South still cite these comments as a barrier to accepting his leadership in any national coalition.
For El-Rufai, what once appeared to be a bold attempt to create a third force has turned into a lonely political gamble. The bridges he burnt behind him may not be easily rebuilt, and the path forward is laden with uncertainty.
Whether he returns to the PDP, reconciles with the APC, or continues to push a fading SDP agenda, the former governor’s next move could determine not just his political relevance, but the broader shape of opposition politics in Nigeria heading into 2027.