The price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, may fall further to around N800 per litre in the coming weeks or months, following a drop in global crude oil prices and the reinstatement of the naira-for-crude agreement for local refiners.
Oil marketers and industry experts made this projection on Wednesday, noting that these combined factors could bring significant relief to consumers.
The development comes as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery slashed its ex-depot price for PMS to N835 per litre.
This marks the second time in less than a week that the refinery has reduced prices, representing a N30 drop from N865 per litre recorded six days earlier, and a N45 reduction from the N880 per litre announced the previous week.
The new price was confirmed through a pro forma invoice obtained by our correspondent and verified on petroleumprice.ng.
In a statement released by Dangote Group’s Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, the company reaffirmed its commitment to making high-quality petrol affordable.
The statement explained that the new ex-depot price includes all statutory levies by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
While coastal sales remain suspended, diesel at the refinery is now priced at $608 per metric tonne plus a $70 surcharge, payable in naira at the exchange rate of N1,650/$ or in US dollars.
Jet fuel is being sold at $664.75 with an additional $42 gantry and $22 coastal surcharge. Prices for cooking gas remain unchanged for now.
Despite the ex-depot adjustment, Dangote’s retail partners such as MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde, and Tecno Oil are expected to sell petrol at prices ranging from N890 to N920 across different regions.
Specifically, the new pump prices are expected to be N890 per litre in Lagos, N900 in the South-West, N910 in the North-West and North-Central, and N920 in the South-East, South-South, and North-East. This is a notable reduction from previous prices which stood at N920, N930, N940, and N950 respectively.
Chiejina expressed confidence that the recent price cut will positively affect the broader economy by easing the financial burden on consumers and stimulating economic activities.
He also emphasized that Dangote Petroleum Refinery has consistently made efforts to reduce the cost of refined petroleum products, including two price reductions in February which saw a cumulative drop of N125. Diesel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) have also seen price reductions due to these initiatives.
The refinery pledged its continued commitment to ensuring a steady and affordable supply of petroleum products within Nigeria and beyond.
Chiejina further called on industry stakeholders, including distributors and marketers, to source products from the Dangote Refinery to help extend the benefits of the reduced prices nationwide.
Earlier on Wednesday, PUNCH Online hinted at a possible downward shift in petrol prices, following a decline in the landing cost of imported petrol to N853 per litre on Tuesday.
This is down from N856.75 per litre last Monday. On-the-spot sales at the NPSC-NOJ terminal also fell to N853.12 per litre, while the 30-day average cost dropped to N844.84.
Within the same period, petroleum marketers imported about 117,000 metric tonnes—roughly 156.9 million litres—of petrol through Tin Can Port in Lagos and Calabar Port in Cross River State.
The pump price reduction also coincides with the full reinstatement of the naira-for-crude initiative, which had previously been suspended. The Ministry of Finance confirmed the policy’s reimplementation through a post on its official X handle last week.
It followed a meeting between Finance Minister Wale Edun and Dangote Refinery executives to review and address implementation issues.
The government reiterated that this initiative is not temporary but a long-term measure aimed at reducing dependence on foreign exchange for petroleum products and bolstering local refining capacity.
Despite the notable reductions in ex-depot and landing costs, many independent marketers are yet to adjust pump prices across filling stations, citing lingering losses and instability in the market.
Commenting on this, Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, described the current situation as a direct consequence of the revived naira-for-crude policy and falling global crude prices.
He noted that if the global crude oil price drops to $50 per barrel, Nigerians could see PMS prices fall further to between N650 and N700 per litre.
However, Ukadike warned that the shift also poses challenges for marketers who may now face operational losses. He emphasized that with the government now supplying crude to Dangote Refinery in naira, it would be unfair for the refinery to maintain high prices. According to him, the new policy direction from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) should naturally reflect in pump prices.
Oil and gas analyst Olatide Jeremiah also weighed in, stating that without the suspension of the naira-for-crude deal earlier in the year, petrol prices might have already dropped to around N700 per litre.
He added that the current price drop is triggering a price war between Dangote and private depot owners, who are now grappling with unsold stock purchased at higher rates.
He predicted that the ongoing competition would force further reductions, ultimately benefiting consumers.
On the other hand, Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, offered a cautionary view.
He warned that frequent and arbitrary changes in pump prices could lead to significant instability within the downstream sector.
As crude oil prices continue to fluctuate and local refining strengthens, Nigerians are watching closely to see how these shifts will affect their daily expenses, especially in the transportation and logistics sectors.
The weeks ahead may determine whether the projected N800 pump price—and possibly even lower—will become the new norm.